Saturday, June 26, 2010

ZERO AND THE MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY

ZERO/DOUBLEZERO AND THE MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY

The mathematical and the statistical probability are calculated by dividing the number of appearances of advantageous chances by the number of appearances of all chances.

This probability is expressed in the form of a fraction, because the number of appearances of advantageous chances is always smaller than the number of appearances of all chances.

The mathematical probability for the appearance of ZERO is always to the advantage of the Casino, because ZERO, like all other numbers, on average will appear once in 37 spins and every time take half of your wager on the even money bets. Therefore ZERO is going to cost you one unit every 74 spins. On single Zero wheels without en-prison rule ZERO will take away one unit every 37 spins and on American wheels, ZERO and DOUBLEZERO will take away 2 units in every 38 spins!

If you are going to bet $ 100 74 times, you are going to lose $ 100 to Zero. $ 100 divided by 74 is $ 1.35 per spin or $ 49.95 in 37 spins, roughly half the amount of $ 100. This is the price of the Zero tax. It is a direct capital tax. It takes away 1.35% of the gross on even money bets and 2.7% of the gross on all other bets!

On American wheels, where there are ZERO and DOUBLEZERO and every bet on the even money chances is lost when those green numbers appear, the situation is really bad. Here the tax, or the House's edge is 5.26% of the gross on all bets!!

With each even money bet you place the Casino has the mathematical probability of 1/74 to win with ZERO, plus the statistical probability of ½ (the 18 numbers of the opposite chance). Therefore the mathematical probability for the Casino can be expressed by the fraction 75/148 and the probability for the player by the fraction 73/148.

In summary, ZERO on a European Roulette will cause the loss of one unit in 74 placed bets, and ZERO/DOUBLEZERO on an American Roulette will cause the loss of two units in 38 placed bets.

So ZERO/DOUBLEZERO is a direct tax, and there are no means to evade this tax! However it is very favorable to pay this tax in fractions, i.e. to pay with every placed bet a proportional insurance of the money wagered (if the bet is big enough):

For example: if you play at a $ 5 minimum table, those five dollars, placed as a split bet on ZERO/DOUBLEZERO will pay out 1:17 or $ 90 including your original wager, and is going to cover a $ 90 wager on an even money or a twelve number bet.

Our recommendation is to insure every bet of substantial size!

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